This year, Americans preparing for Thanksgiving dinner will notice a slight drop in grocery costs for the second consecutive year. According to the 39th annual American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) Thanksgiving dinner survey. A traditional feast for 10 people costs $58.08, marking a 5% decrease from last year. However, this remains 19% higher than the price five years ago. While shoppers are finally seeing some relief after years of high food prices. These reduced bills also highlight challenging discussions for farm and ranch families navigating their own economic realities.
The Thanksgiving Dinner Survey
Every year, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visit local grocery stores (or shop online) to check the prices of items used for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner. Since 1986, they’ve tracked prices for foods like turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream, and whole milk.
The cost of this classic meal is a mix of price drops and increases. Seven items, including turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, a vegetable tray with carrots and celery, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts, and whole milk, have become cheaper this year. However, four items – dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipping cream, and cubed stuffing – have seen price increases.
In 2018, the survey also started tracking prices for ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans, adding more traditional Thanksgiving favorites. All of these items cost less this year. Including the additional foods, the full Thanksgiving meal now costs $77.34, or $7.73 per person, with plenty of leftovers. This updated meal price shows an 8.7% decrease from 2023, nearly doubling the savings of the classic Thanksgiving dinner.
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Turkey – A Big Part of the Grocery Bill
Turkey has always made up a large portion of the Thanksgiving dinner cost. On average, it accounts for 43% of the total price. This year, it’s even more – a 16-pound turkey makes up 44.2% of the cost of the classic 10-person feast. Because turkey plays such a big role in the dinner bill, changes in turkey prices often reflect changes in the overall cost of the meal.
This year, turkey prices dropped by 6%, which is unusual. The USDA’s Turkeys Raised report shows that farmers raised 205 million turkeys in 2024. Which is 6% fewer than last year and the lowest number since 1985. The decline is mainly due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Normally, fewer turkeys would lead to higher prices, but this year demand for turkey fell. The USDA estimates that people will eat 13.9 pounds of turkey per person in 2024, down a pound from last year. This drop in demand is the main reason turkey prices are lower this year.
The Rest of the Thanksgiving Dinner Table
Many ingredients in our survey saw price drops this year, including fresh vegetables and turkey, the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving table. The overall price changes in vegetables helped bring down the cost of fresh items like celery and carrots, often used in relish trays. Good weather conditions for dairy cows and their feed contributed to a 14% decrease in the price of a gallon of whole milk. However, it’s worth noting that milk prices can vary greatly depending on the region.
The biggest price increases this year came from processed products. Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing both rose by more than 8% compared to 2023. Inflation and labor shortages across the food supply chain have contributed to these higher costs.
Fresh cranberries saw the next largest price jump, up 12%. This follows a big 18% drop in cranberry prices from 2022 to 2023. Even though prices went up, cranberries are still more affordable than in previous years. In fact, when adjusted for inflation, this is the lowest cranberry price since 1987.
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Regional Differences – More Than Just Dressing vs. Stuffing
Thanksgiving dinner can vary not only in the dishes you serve but also in how much you spend, depending on where you live. In the West, your grocery bill will be at least 15% higher than in other parts of the U.S., costing $67.81 for a group of 10. Other regions pay $9 or more less. The South has the lowest costs, with a total of $56.81, followed by the Northeast at $57.36 and the Midwest at $58.90.
When you factor in the expanded Thanksgiving meal, the price differences continue. In the South, Northeast, and Midwest, adding ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans brings the total to $81.07, $81.37, and $83.03, respectively. However, in the West, the same expanded meal costs $94.09, which is more than $1 extra per person.
The Cost of Food
Although this year’s Thanksgiving meal is 5% cheaper than last year. It’s still nearly 20% more expensive than five years ago. After years of inflation, consumers are feeling the strain, and while recent price drops offer some relief. It will take more than just a couple of years of lower costs to ease the burden. However, the recent declines show that food in the U.S. is becoming more affordable. Grocery bills may still seem high, but food inflation has been much lower than price hikes in other areas. From October 2023 to 2024, food prices at home only went up by 1.1%, which is half the overall economy’s 2.6% price increase. Other costs, such as transportation (up 8.2%), housing (up 4.9%), and electricity (up 4.5%), saw much larger increases.
When adjusted for inflation – or if we look at what Thanksgiving would cost in 1984 with the same buying power – this year’s meal is the least expensive in the 39 years of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, aside from the unique situation in 2020. Despite inflation eroding the dollar’s purchasing power, some items on the Thanksgiving table are priced at their lowest levels in years, including cranberries, which are priced just slightly higher than last year’s significant drop.
Food affordability also improves when we consider wages. In 2022, Americans spent 6.7% of their income on food, including dining out and takeout, which is the lowest percentage in the world. For comparison, the food share is 8.5% in the UK, 16.2% in Brazil, and as high as 59% in developing countries like Nigeria.
Additionally, the average American needs to work fewer hours to afford the same Thanksgiving meal compared to previous years. Wages grew faster after the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation slowed. From 2023 to 2024, wages increased by 4%, meaning it now takes 9% less time to earn enough to cover the cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.
Back on the Farm
While shoppers are seeing some stability in food prices, farmers are facing lower and more unpredictable prices for their products. Just like consumers, they’re also feeling the impact of inflation. As the cost of running their farms has risen sharply in recent years. The USDA predicts that national net farm income will drop by $6.5 billion in 2024.
Simply put, farmers don’t control the prices they get for their products. They are “price takers,” meaning they have to accept the fluctuating prices that affect the food supply chain. On average, farmers receive just 9.3 cents of every dollar spent on food, although this share can vary depending on the product. For less processed items, such as meat, milk, and vegetables, farmers get a larger share. But these products also experience more price swings at the grocery store. This means consumers may feel some of the price volatility that farmers face.
Give Thanks for Supporting Farms
The farmers and ranchers who grow the food on your Thanksgiving table face many struggles. Low crop prices, bad weather, natural disasters like hurricanes, and changing international markets all threaten their livelihoods. Congress has historically stepped in with the farm bill and disaster relief in tough times. However, the most recent farm bill expired this fall, leaving it outdated after six years. Disaster relief in recent years has been delayed and limited, making it harder for farmers and rural communities to recover. When timely and effective, this support is crucial in ensuring that America’s food supply remains safe, affordable, and secure.
Conclusion
According to AFBF’s national Thanksgiving survey, this year’s Thanksgiving meal will cost about 5% less than last year, though it is still nearly 20% higher than five years ago. After a long period of inflation, many Americans, including farm families, are feeling the pressure. Farmers are caught between lower prices for their products and higher costs for what they need to produce food. They take on a lot of the risk in the food system to keep food affordable and plentiful. When times are tough, farmers rely on a strong farm bill and effective disaster assistance to help them stay in business.
Originally Article Published : fb.org
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